Once in a Lifetime

There are a lot of reasonable and well-considered analyses to be made about the upcoming super bowl. Important questions involve the two quarterbacks, the condition of Hines Ward’s knee, whether or not Larry Fitzgerald is human, can the Steelers’ offensive line maintain protection, etcetc.

However, the internet is littered with expert opinions and insight. There is little reason for me to provide in depth arguments, although I will provide the following (very brief) opinion: The Steelers are the stronger team overall and will win unless they have major breakdowns involving special teams or turnovers.

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The real reason that the Steelers ought to triumph does not, in fact, have anything to do with statistics or personnel match-ups, but instead with a kind of personal-biographical astrological alignment that only happens once or twice in a lifetime, if that.

You see, the Superbowl takes place on my birthday. This is not terribly unusual, as the Feb 1 features the superbowl once every 7 years. Still, it is a reasonably rare occasion. Now, all things being even, the chances that any given team will play in the superbowl in a given season are 1 in 16. A bit of multiplication yields the result that a given team is likely to be in the superbowl on my birthday approximately once every 112 years.

Of course, the Steelers are not any team. They are a very well run franchise and have historically represented the AFC in about 1 of every 6 or 7 superbowls. Even if the Steelers continue their success, they are only likely to play on my birthday once every 40 to 50 years. Which means that this is the kind of big deal life event that will only maybe happen once more in my whole life, like a wedding or something.

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Also of note: People rooting for the Steelers include: the US astronauts currently in space and President Obama. The Cardinals have McCain. I think we notice a winner/loser pattern here…

Steeler’s Statistical Trivia

I learned two interesting statistics about the Steelers. Actually, they are both about quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. zthey are rather shocking.

1) He has reached 50 wins in fewer games than any other QB in NFL history.

2) Of those 50 wins, 16 have come as a result of the Steelers scoring the game-winning points on their final possession of the game. This seems like an almost impossibly high number, but it is true.

I wonder if someone has figured out the statistics for percentage of games won on their last possession. I am willing to bet that Roethlisberger is the all-time leader in that as well.

3 Items

Several small notes. More serious thoughts to come later this weekend.

 

I was recently shown this link: http://blogoscoped.com/files/stripes.html

I think we can all agree that it’s pretty rad.

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I completed the first draft of my new book. It is a collection of short stories called ‘We Will Have Stronger Arms Now Than We Did Before’. I’m pretty excited about it although I know it needs some serious revision in parts.

If you want to volunteer to read it and give editorial advice, please let me know. Let me know by sending me an email though, not a comment here, because otherwise it will be embarrassing if/when nobody comments. 

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The Steelers and Penn State both won convincingly this week, although the Steelers punting was awful. We’re already on our third punter of the season and will likely have to pick up someone new this week. Everyone said that the Steelers took Sepulveda with too high of a pick, but he’s a huge asset when he’s healthy. Especially because we don’t have very good kick returners, having a first-rate punter is crucial for field position. Strangely enough, of all of the injuries that Pittsburgh’s struggled with this season, I think it might be Sepulveda’s that hurts the most. (apologies for the pun)

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Automated Sign of the Apocalypse and Football Notes

My instant messenger has a number of ‘bots’ that are automatically added as friends. These are programs that take on a screen name and have automated chat capabilities. For example, one of them can tell you about celebrity gossip, one of them talks about sports, etc.

Mostly they are annoying, but they’re easy to ignore and I’m too lazy to remove them.

Like any entity with a screen name, these bots can display a message under their name on your buddy list. Today I noticed that the politics bot, something called ‘voteredorblue’ was displaying the message, “Sarah Palin 2012?”

Let’s remember that December of the year 2012 marks the end of the Mayan long count and is a popular target date for theories of the apocalypse. Palin 2012 sure sounds like the End of Days to me.

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On the positive news front, both Penn State and the Pittsburgh Steelers won on the road this weekend. The Nittany Lions handily defeated Purdue and remain in the #6 ranking. They face Wisconsin and Ohio State on the road in the next three weeks, after which time we’ll be able to tell if they are truly national championship contenders.

For the Steelers, their victory at Jacksonville was of vital importance, getting them to 4-1 (and, importantly, 4-0 in the AFC). They won despite missing their fullback and top two running backs, as well as defensive stars Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel. According to the composite record of their opponents from last season, Steelers face the hardest schedule of any NFL team in a quarter century. They are going to lose at least a handful of games, but the fact that they can overcome serious injury problems and win tough road games gives me a lot of hope that they have the potential to go deep in the playoffs.

Final Steelers note: Hines Ward caught 7 passes for 90 yards and the game winning touchdown. He also set several key blocks for Mewelde Moore, who played terrifically. I plan to write more about this before long, but I believe that Hines Ward deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. If you look at what he means to his franchise and the amount he has contributed to his team’s success, Ward is in a class only matched by Hall of Famers. His stats were never as gaudy as those of players on more pass-oriented teams, but if you look at his career numbers, he has quietly become one of the all-time league leaders in receptions, receiving touchdowns, and receiving yards.

Minor Notes

A few minor notes:

1) I have piece of flash fiction up at dogzplot It’s called Mr. Pibb, etc. It’s a pretty minor piece, part of the ‘Boring and Depressing Stories’ section of my current project.

2) Update from earlier remarks on the Steelers’ injuries at running back. As expected, they’ve brought back Najeh Davenport. Davenport has been productive for Pittsburgh in the past and he knows the offense, so it makes sense to pick him up. However, I have serious doubts that he’ll be prepared for Sunday’s game against Jacksonville. I looked at his personal blog (www.najeh-lovinlife.blogspot.com ) and he jokes about his lack of conditioning after getting cut in the pre-season and writes that he was brought in by the Bucs for a workout and his agent was told that he was ‘overweight and out of shape.’ I hope he plays well and helps the team, but I’m pretty worried that the running game is in trouble.

Sports Movies, Sports Thoughts

Today is a day for things to be said that I don’t imagine too many people really care about. At least, I don’t think too many people that read this blog particularly care about them.

Regardless, they are on my mind:

Bad News Bears

I watched the re-make of Bad News Bears on television a few nights ago. It is dreadful. If you are ever in a situation in which someone suggests that you watch Bad News Bears, make sure it’s the original. BNB version one is terrifically acted and genuinely both funny and moving. It takes deeply flawed characters and only redeems them slightly, while never belittling the importance of those small redemptions. The remake is a cheap and poorly made imitation that strips most of the heart and humor from it’s parent film.

A few of the most disgusting parts of the new version:

A) The team’s sponsor is changed from Chico’s Bail Bonds to Bo-Peep’s Strip Club. This is mostly to get some really cheesy shots of strippers cheerleading.

B) The opposing coach is played for laughs, even in the scene in which he hits his kid. The whole weight of the movie is lost with this awful performance.

C) Kelly Leek smoked cigarettes in the original and played air hockey. In the new version he doesn’t smoke and skateboards. In the old version he was tough and cool, but showed very believable moments of vulnerability. In the remake, he’s a boring punk with no real depth and so with none of the original’s charm.

D) Billy Bob Thorton is no Walter Matthau, Tatum O’Neal’s replacement is no Tatum O’Neal…pretty much every character in the film is played by a much lesser (or at the very least worse-cast) actor.

Sports Thoughts:

The Steelers victory over the Ravens on Monday night brings them to 3-1 on the season and first place in the AFC North. Unfortunately, they’re in real trouble, facing an unbelievably brutal schedule and beset by more injuries already than many teams have to deal with in a season. Against the Ravens, they were down to a single running back, having lost Pro Bowler Willie Parker and first round draft choice Rashard Mendenhall, as well as fullback Carey Davis. Perhaps just as troubling as the injuries at the running back position is the absence of nose tackle Casey Hampton, without whom the Steelers’ run defense looked mediocre at best. In fact, for the last two game, Pittsburgh’s been outplayed on both sides of the line and it’s remarkable that they managed to win at home against an aging Ravens team. With the difficulty of their upcoming schedule, I think even making the playoffs looks like it’ll be a major accomplishment. It’s going to be a tough year.

On the plus side, Penn State has improved in the polls to #6 nationally and is widely considered the Big 10 frontrunner after both Ohio State and Wisconsin suffered embarrassing early season losses. I don’t think they’ve quite earned the #6 spot, but as I’ve said all year, it looks like PSU is in real contention for a BCS bowl.

And finally, in baseball, I was bummed to see the Twins lose to the White Sox and miss the playoffs. It does mean that both Chicago teams have made the playoffs, giving us the possibility of a subway series. It would have been more interesting if the Mets and Yankees had made the playoffs as well. Then a full 50% of the MLB playoff teams would represent only two cities.